U.S. Declines USMCA Renewal, Opts for Annual Reviews

In a press conference on Wednesday, Ebrard stressed that the trade pact will continue working as it has been but will require annual trilateral reviews through 2036. (Galo Cañas/Cuartoscuro)

The Trump administration has officially decided against renewing the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) for a new 16-year term. While this decision marks a significant shift in North American trade policy, the agreement remains fully in force under its current framework until its original expiration in 2036.

Moving forward, the three nations will transition to a system of annual trilateral reviews. This process is intended to allow Washington to more frequently reassess trade policies, address trade imbalances, and strengthen domestic production.

Greer’s statement on the USMCA. (Screenshot)

Official Statements

Mexico (Marcelo Ebrard) – The agreement remains in force. Mexico is committed to the annual review process to systematically reduce unresolved trade issues.

U.S. (Jamieson Greer) – The U.S. will not renew the agreement in its current form. Negotiations will continue, starting in late July, to address “shortcomings” and trade deficits.

Canada (Dominic LeBlanc) – Canada reaffirmed support for the pact, noting it remains fully in force until 2036 and remains a vital pillar for North American prosperity.

All three nations have emphasized that trade will continue to operate normally. Any withdrawal from the pact would require six months’ notice, which has not been given.

Meanwhile, analysts expect upcoming talks to focus on strengthening rules of origin for automotive and industrial goods, resolving sector-specific tariffs (steel, aluminum, lumber), and reinforcing regional supply chains to prevent third-party exploitation of the agreement.

Finally, while the move has created some uncertainty for investors managing the USD $2 trillion in annual trade flows governed by the USMCA, the commitment to annual reviews leaves the door open for a future long-term extension if trade frictions are successfully mitigated.

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