Mexico Auto Industry 2025 Export and Market Outlook

According to the Registro Administrativo de la Industria Automotriz de Vehículos Ligeros (RAIAVL), Mexico’s auto industry exported 2,252,578 vehicles from January to August 2025, a 1.02% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. Despite a slight decline in cumulative figures, the recovery in August highlights the sector’s export resilience. The United States remained the primary export market with a 79% share, followed by Canada at 11.1% and Germany at 2.9%, underscoring the critical role of T-MEC in Mexico’s industrial integration and supply chain. Light trucks and SUVs continue to dominate, accounting for 77.2% of total production in the first eight months, while cars made up 22.8%, reflecting regional demand for pickups and utility vehicles.

Among export brands, Ford saw a 22.6% increase in August, exporting 37,778 vehicles; Nissan grew 34.4% to 37,549 units; and Stellantis rose 28.6% to 31,736 units. In contrast, Volkswagen (-18.7%), Mazda (-7.8%), and Toyota (-5.5%) experienced declines. Year-to-date, Toyota leads with a 40.8% growth, Ford with 9.7%, and General Motors remains stable at +1.1%. These figures indicate that strong performances by some brands offset contractions in others, reflecting the direct link between Mexico’s production subsidiaries and their global parent companies’ strategies to meet U.S. demand. The domestic market showed moderate performance, with 958,006 vehicles sold from January to August, a 0.66% annual decline, and a 2.99% drop in August compared to 2024. Nissan (+6.9%), Mazda (+10.5%), KIA (+4.8%), and BMW Group (+11.9%) saw growth, while Stellantis (-7.6%) and SEAT (-20.1%) declined.

Looking ahead to the remainder of 2025, the August export increase suggests that Mexico’s auto industry will continue to rely on U.S. demand and the consolidation of the T-MEC value chain. Factors such as nearshoring, the growing relevance of light trucks, and the capacity of Mexico’s plants to respond to regional demand will be key to achieving a positive year-end balance.