Mexico's trade surplus with the U.S. has increased |

Despite escalating U.S. tariffs, Mexico’s trade surplus with its northern neighbor grew year-on-year in April 2025, underscoring the enduring strength of the economic relationship. Simultaneously, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) – particularly from the U.S. – is booming in key industrial states like Nuevo León, even as billions hang in the balance pending U.S. trade policy decisions.

According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Mexico recorded a trade surplus of $13.5 billion with the United States in April 2025—an increase of 2.8% compared to the same period last year, despite tariff pressures. This resilience stands in stark contrast to a 2.7% decline in Mexican exports to the U.S. ($41.7 billion) and an even sharper 5.2% drop in U.S. exports to Mexico ($27.8 billion). Analysts attribute the contraction primarily to aggressive tariffs imposed by the U.S. outside the framework of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). During the same period, Mexico solidified its position as the United States’ top trading partner, with bilateral trade totaling $69 billion—accounting for 15% of total U.S. global trade—well ahead of Canada ($56.6 billion) and China ($33.6 billion).

The data release coincided with critical negotiations led by Mexico’s Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard, who condemned the recent doubling of U.S. tariffs on Mexican steel and aluminum to 50% as “unsustainable” and “unfair.” Ebrard argued the tariffs harm integrated industries in both nations, particularly automotive, construction, and electronics, and are illogical given the U.S. already runs a surplus in steel trade with Mexico.

While trade tensions simmer, U.S. investment in Mexico is accelerating.Nuevo Leon, a major nearshoring hub, exemplifies this trend.Federal data shows the state attracted nearly 2.7 billion FDI during Q1 2025,marking a 7% increase year-on-year. The United States contributes 2.7 billion in FDI during Q1 2025, marking a 1.45 billion (54% of the state’s total) – a staggering 134% surge compared to Q1 2024.

Acting State Economy Minister Emmanuel Loo highlighted a significant caveat: approximately $10 billion in potential investments for Nuevo León are currently on hold, awaiting clarity on U.S. trade and tariff policy directions. This underscores how the ongoing trade disputes directly impact investment decisions crucial for Mexico’s industrial future.

Mexico’s economic relationship with the U.S. presents a complex picture: resilient trade flows and booming investment in key sectors like manufacturing coexist with significant friction from protectionist tariffs. While Mexico maintains its position as the U.S.’s foremost trade partner and states like Nuevo León reap substantial FDI rewards, the sustainability of this growth hinges on resolving trade tensions. The billions in delayed investment signal that U.S. policy decisions will be pivotal in determining whether the current nearshoring momentum can be fully realized.

Source：

1.https://mexiconewsdaily.com/business/fdi-is-up-in-nuevo-leon/

2.https://mexiconewsdaily.com/business/mexico-us-trade-surplus-exports-drop/