According to provisional estimates released by the OECD, Mexico’s economic growth adjusted positively in the second quarter of 2026. Its quarterly growth rose to 1.4% after a 0.3% contraction in the first quarter, showing remarkable recovery momentum among G20 economies. Meanwhile, the overall G20 economic growth cooled to 0.7%, slightly lower than the level recorded in the first quarter of 2026.

Consistent economic data and distinct industrial structure

Official data from INEGI is highly consistent with OECD estimates. In the second quarter of 2026, Mexico’s economy rebounded quarter-on-quarter after a contraction in the first quarter and maintained positive year-on-year growth. From April to June 2026, Mexico’s gross value added reached 34.79 trillion Mexican pesos. Services and commerce dominated the economic output with a proportion of 63.4%, while industrial activities accounted for 32.6%.

Phased growth structure supports overall economic operation

Mexico’s economy achieved a 2.1% year-on-year growth in Q2 2026, supported by robust agricultural output and recovering household consumption driven by social welfare policies and minimum-wage adjustments. In terms of economic structure, private investment is undergoing continuous adjustment with relatively weak short-term performance, representing a key feature of current economic operations. Driven mainly by trade activities and public consumption, the current economic growth shows obvious structural characteristics and differentiated industrial performance.

Divergent forecasts affected by external trade environment

Driven by the solid Q2 economic performance, multiple international institutions have updated their full-year growth forecasts for Mexico in 2026. Differences exist among institutional predictions due to varied statistical standards and judgment perspectives. Forecasts from the OECD, Banxico, the World Bank and the Mexican government reflect diversified market expectations. The ongoing USMCA renegotiation and uncertain trade environment continue to influence corporate investment decisions and export performance, acting as key external factors affecting Mexico’s annual economic outlook.